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Regime Report

2 August 2026

BTC against the 200-day SMA and 20-week EMA, 2 August 2026
Price against the two filters that gate every strategy. Market data, not performance.

Regime Report — 2026-08-02

Both assets remain in BEAR. Six of seven strategies are flat; one, the Iron Turtle, is eligible.

What changed since last week

Nothing changed this week. No regime flips, no eligibility changes, no new ledger entries. The ledger stands at 6 entries since the live record started on 2026-07-27. This report covers the 5 days since the last one.

The regime picture

On the 2026-08-01 bar, BTCUSDT closed at 62,823.64, below both filters — the 200-day SMA at 71,497.44 and the 20-week EMA at 70,068.02. BTC has been in BEAR since 2026-05-16, now 77 days.

SOLUSDT closed at 71.95, also below both filters: 200-day SMA 86.49, 20-week EMA 84.54. SOL has been in BEAR since 2025-11-03, now 271 days.

Price is under both filters on both assets. That is the least ambiguous version of this regime — there is no disagreement between the two to resolve.

What this means in practice

For most subscribers, nothing to do. Six strategies — The Phoenix, The Sentinel, The Grandmaster, The Fortress, The Pantheon, and The Oracle — are flat and stay flat while the filters read this way. The longest continuous flat stretch now runs 276 days, since 2025-10-29. The Iron Turtle is the one eligible strategy.

A reminder on the record: these strategies were published in July 2026, after this bear market was already underway. Anything before 2026-07-27 is a backtest, not a live call. Nobody here sidestepped this drawdown in real time.

Shipped this week

  • Subscriptions are open again. Plans were restructured over the prior few days and are now live; the Arsenal tier is gone and the Iron Turtle is free.
  • Added a public Regime Report archive, so past reports are readable without an account, plus email delivery if you would rather not check the site.
  • Every remaining full-history performance figure on the site now carries the backtest qualifier in the same sentence as the number, not somewhere nearby.
  • The Iron Turtle now runs against the v1.01 indicator source. Access controls on routes touching customer data were tightened.

Record provenance

Daily record started 27 July 2026 · 6 entries at time of writing · chain head 6eee95865cfc715e…

Each daily entry commits to the hash of the previous one. Changing any past entry changes every hash after it, including this one.

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Describes the state of a mechanical system. Not financial advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell anything, and contains no forecast. Backtested results are hypothetical and do not predict future performance.